tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9023417.post6570324938082233435..comments2024-03-27T10:02:37.532-05:00Comments on This Is Your Captain Speaking: Would You Get on a Plane With No Pilots?The Captainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03919928014165571837noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9023417.post-49231291953691914972014-12-20T11:11:09.481-06:002014-12-20T11:11:09.481-06:00Agreed! There are some serious problems ahead in t...Agreed! There are some serious problems ahead in the industry re manning. I also agree that automation and single pilot ops will not be ready to help for many years. <br /><br />Perhaps airlines will need to take another look at ab initio programs which take talented high school grads through a two year program. No one really needs a college degree to fly an airplane.<br /><br />A friend of mine recently retired from Spicejet in India which used a program of experienced ex-pats in the left seat assisted by young inexperienced f/os. The first officers barely flew but were there to assist. Perhaps this might work.<br /><br />You're correct that the problem needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. In the meantime, cities will lose frequency, service, and ticket prices will go up.The Captainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03919928014165571837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9023417.post-48475412044747520072014-12-20T09:35:38.828-06:002014-12-20T09:35:38.828-06:00Thanks Captain, I'm not concerned about my fut...Thanks Captain, I'm not concerned about my future, but the future of the U.S. aviation industry and economy. As you point out, we are already in a pilot shortage. The major airlines are hiring around 3000 pilots/year, mostly from the regional and low-cost airlines. The regional and low-cost airlines are finding few new pilots, as there are very few Americans in flight training today. Boeing and ALPA say the industry will need around 4500 pilots/year, and there are only hundreds/year coming out of training, and that number is dropping. The 16,000 pilots at regional airlines, who fly over half the nations airline flights, will be gone to the major airlines quickly.<br /><br />Kit Darby says only one in ten entrants make it through commercial flight training, so we need an immediate increase of at least 45,000 additional young Americans entering flight school, to have them available in six or eight years. The expectation that this career will be much less in demand in 15 to 20 years doesn't bode well for attracting more young people than has ever entered flight training in a year, and more than the system can possibly take in.<br /><br />Europe has approved MPL pilots to take over right-seat duties, these are minimally trained pilots, specifically trained for one airline on their procedures and policies. They train cheap and work cheap, and don't gain flight hours they can use to get a better pilot job. They will probably be approved within a year for the U.S., effectively giving us single-pilot operations much sooner than 15 to 20 years. It would certainly solve the pilot shortage and keep the industry going, but could put pilots out of work. I'm not sure who would become an MPL pilot, it is expensive and a dead-end. Perhaps the FAA will make their hours loggable to attract young people.<br /><br />We are headed for some serious problems, and we need some serious answers. People like you with positions on the right rooftops need to begin shouting an alarm, before it is too late, although it might already be too late.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9023417.post-81501251364004994552014-12-20T07:24:07.591-06:002014-12-20T07:24:07.591-06:00I estimated 20 years because that is close to the ...I estimated 20 years because that is close to the current technology cycle to introduce new aircraft. The 777 was introduced in 1995 and the 787 in 2014. The article mentioned that it wouldn't be until the end of the next decade until single pilot ops are considered at cargo airlines and many years after that for passenger carriers.<br /><br />My advice would be it depends on how badly you want to be in the air. There is and will continue to be a severe pilot shortage in the near term so those who put in the time to get their ratings today will have plenty of work. Wages should also be going up as the shortage continues.<br /><br />The question is one of long term job growth. In 20 years, if automation replaces pilots, there could be job stagnation. It will be a risk for those just getting into the field but for the near term the outlook is good.<br /><br />Hope this helps and good luck!The Captainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03919928014165571837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9023417.post-76543084153284000742014-12-19T15:27:06.082-06:002014-12-19T15:27:06.082-06:00You say 20 years 'till the next generation air...You say 20 years 'till the next generation airliners, designed for single pilots, start replacing current airliners. NASA and Rockwell put it closer to 15 years to single-pilot ops, presumably with current-gen airliners. The newer airliners may already have provisions for single-pilot and remote pilot backup.<br /><br />What would you tell a 20-year-old who is looking at investing heavily in a 45+ year career? In 15 or 20 years, he or she would be a long way from earning the good money and decent lifestyle of a senior captain, and that is when the bottom likely will fall out of this career. The job isn't very inviting now, and is likely to be obsolete long before anyone entering today will reap the rewards of their investments and sacrifices.<br /><br />When you mention "Crossing the bridge", I think of the bridge between now and the day we have full automation, how will the airline and air-cargo and corporate air industries survive that long without nearly enough pilots? How will the economy, that is heavily dependent on aviation, thrive?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com